There’s a town on the outskirts of Beijing thatmight just be the strangest you’ll ever see. The mainstreet looks as if it was based on a child’s crayondrawing—a riotous palette of pinks, blues, andoranges—and the residents are frighteningly still. Infact, most aren’t even real. Instead, the townfeatures such sights as a pair of petrified pigeons,yellow phone booths, and a statue of a sea doggazing from a bridge.

当你第一眼看到这个位于北京郊区的小镇时，定会非常惊讶，一条条商业街宛若孩子的调色板，五彩斑斓，而街上的人们，却举止僵硬，如同孩子用蜡笔画画出来的一般。其实，你所看到的大部分都是假景。鸽子，黄色电话亭，站在桥上凝望的水手这些人造景观形成了这个小镇的独特风格。

Welcome to “Spring Legend, a mock-Alpine town located in Huairou, a designated green-beltdistrict about 35 miles from Beijing. The town has existed for about five years, but it lackssomething fundamental: residents.

欢迎来到怀柔的“顶秀美泉小镇，这座离北京市区三十公里左右的欧式小镇，建成已经五年，却缺少了一个商业住宅区最基本的构成要素：居民。

Spring Legend has the feel of a dream come true. Entering the town’s German restaurant—outside of which sits a statue of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill enjoying a bronzecigar—tables are set with fine china, wine goblets, silver cutlery, and linen, all neatly laid out fordiners who never arrive. Then, a waitress dressed as a Bavarian fr?ulein appears and inquireshow many there will be for lunch.

踏进顶秀美泉小镇，让人仿佛置身梦中，德式餐厅的门口，放置着一尊正在抽烟的英国首相丘吉尔的铜质雕像。餐厅里的桌子上整齐的摆放着精美的瓷器和银质餐具，似乎等待着那些永远也不会光临的客人。一位年轻的身穿巴伐利亚服装的服务员走上前来询问就餐的客人数。

The town’s motto is “The Beautiful Legend From the Alps and indeed, compared to thelivability problems of Chinese cities, Spring Legend has a pleasant environment. Tables are setwith fine china, wine goblets, silver cutlery, and linen, all neatly laid out for diners who neverarrive.

顶秀美泉小镇的口号是“来自阿尔卑斯的美丽传说。事实上，和中国很多城市的居住环境比，顶秀美泉小镇的环境的确令人心旷神怡。

“We named it Spring Legend because it’s close to the river and has a small creek runningthrough it, explains Liu Xinhu, the chairman of Ding Xiu Zhi Ye (Spring Legend Properties). “It’s extremely beautiful in the spring, too.

顶秀置业总经理刘新虎说，“我们叫它“顶秀美泉小镇是因为它紧邻雁西河畔，内有小溪流水。春天的时候非常的美。“

The town was conceived back in 2007, towards the end of a period of rapid development inBeijing that led to an increase in pollution and, correspondingly, a renewed interest amongcity-dwellers in a serene environment.

小镇是2007年开始建造的，那时北京刚刚经历了一段迅速发展时期，人口猛增。从而使很多北京市民萌发了远离喧嚣的城市，寻求安静居所的念头。

Spring Legend is empty for one simple reason: During the week, hardly anyone lives there. Anestimated 80 percent of the town’s homeowners also have apartments in Beijing, and,according to Liu, the general occupancy rate in Spring Legend is only about 60 to 70 percent.Multiple-home ownership among China’s rich is not uncommon; University at Albanyprofessor Youqin Huang has estimated that 15 percent of urban households in the countryown two or more houses.

在他看来，房子空置的主要原因是因为平时大家都上班，因此很少有人来居住，他估计说，顶秀美泉小镇的80%的户主在市区也有房。再加上小镇的入住率总共也就百分之六七十。在中国，有钱人拥有多套房的现象并不少见。据奥尔巴尼大学教授黄友琴估计，中国有13%的城市家庭至少拥有两套房。

The nature of property ownership has changed greatly in China. Fifteen years ago, stateworkers (who then comprised much of the population) were assigned basic accommodation.But today, home ownership has become so important that young men struggle to find agirlfriend if they do not own their own home. Buying a place, however, is difficult: Averagesalaries in Beijing top out at about 4, 500 RMB per month (around $750), while the cost of anapartment in the city center is around 43, 000 to 52, 000 RMB per square meter.

中国的房地产本质已经发生了极大的变化。十五年前，城市人口主要由国企工人构成，住房由国家统一安排分配。现在的年轻人若没有房子，连对象都难找，然而，买房却并不容易，北京人均月工资不超过4500元(折合$750)。而北京市区房价均价却在每平方43000元到52000元之间。

Why has China gone mad for housing? With strict capital controls and a state-controlledstock exchange that is volatile and risky, the tangible reassurance of evergreen propertyhas made it a “fungible commodity, in the words of Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder ofBeijing-based equities analysis firm J Capital Research. She says that homes are usually leftempty in order to avoid any depreciation in value.

为什么中国房地产如此火爆?用北京美奇金投资咨询有限公司的合伙创始人杨思安话来说是因为在中国，政府对资金调控极其严格，而炒股又有很大的风险性。这样一来，房子就成了具有保障性的投资商品。她认为房子空置的主要原因是为了避免贬值。

“Renovation costs are very high, so it makes no sense to rent if you are seeking capitalappreciation, she explains via e-mail. “Remember that apartments here are sold bare,without flooring, ceilings, lighting fixtures or wall tiles. They all need to be installed, adding atleast 20 percent to the cost [and] people expect to ... custom fit the unit.

她在电子邮件中做了这样的解释，“重新装修花费太大，所以你想要保值，外租就没有什么意义了。这里出售的商品房都是没有地板，天花板，灯具及墙砖的毛胚房，如果装修，成本至少要增加20%.人们还是希望按照自己的意愿装修。

This means that even in successful towns like Spring Legend—where a unit costs an average of16, 000 RMB (about $2, 500) per square meter, roughly a third the cost of a typical apartmentin central Beijing—the streets and houses remain lifeless. The owners, says Bianca Bosker,author of Original Copies: Architectural Mimicry in Contemporary China , are “dreaming of whatthey’ll do with the riches they imagine they’ll get when they one day sell them. The likelyanswer? Buy more property. However, “Given how many people have hatched the same ‘getrich quick’ real-estate idea, and how many of China’s gated communities stand empty, bettingon real estate looks increasingly risky.

这就意味着在像丁秀美泉这样比较成功的楼盘，即使每套房的售价仅为市区房价的三分，既16000元每平方米，却依然鲜有人住。《原味复制——当代中国的建筑模仿》的作者比安斯·博斯克说，这些户主们梦想着有天把手中的房子抛掉就可以发家致富。真的是这样吗?在中国，如果越来越多的人认为炒房可以快速致富。购买的房子越多，房子的空置率就越高。房地产投资的风险也会越来越大。

Spring Legend is hardly the only city of its kind. There's also Thames Town, outside Shanghai,which is a $300 million British-style residential complex developed by since-incarceratedShanghai Communist Party boss Chen Liangyu. And north of Beijing in Hebei Province isJackson Hole, a wind-swept Wild West replica featuring neighborhoods called Moose Creek,Route 66, and Aspen Land. When developers previewed Jackson Hole in 2003, buyer interestwas intense. The homes “sold out in record time, says Oregon-based designer Allison Smith,who helped create the settlement. Early investors who purchased an “American villa for arounda quarter-million dollars in 2006 have seen their dreams “triple in value, she estimates.

在中国，像顶秀美泉这样空置的商业住宅区并非个例。与它类似的还有由现已身陷囹圄的前上海市委书记陈良宇花费3亿美元打造的英式泰晤士小镇住宅区，河北的杰克森庄园，原版复制的美式慕斯溪，66号公路，阿斯彭度假庄园等等。2003年，杰克森庄园一开盘，就吸引了众多购房者。来自美国俄勒冈的艾莉森.史密斯是该楼盘的方案设计人，她说该楼盘的销售“创造了历史记录。据她估计，2006年以200万人民币购买的在这里购买的“美式别墅，现在其价值已经涨了三倍。

Jackson Hole bucks the trend: It is a living community, a mix of older families and retireesdrawn by what Smith agrees is a serendipitous confluence of factors—co-operativedevelopers, clever marketing, and a great location. But Smith fears there’s a downside to thespeculation. “At this point, the Chinese are in such a rush to buy everything, it may not holdits value down the line, she says. “Jackson Hole doesn’t have that problem; people want tostay there. People want to live there. We've done something positive—it’s not just for themoney."

杰克森度假山是一个逆潮流增长的案例：它是一个充满生机的社区，史密斯认为它的成功是由几个因素综合构成的。如开发商鼎的力合作，独特场营销手段及优越的地理位置等，从而能够吸引众多的老年家庭及退休家庭。但史密斯也担心这种投资方式已经在走下坡路了。“这时候中国人还热衷于到处买房，最后也许就没办法保值了。杰克森庄园不用担心出现什么问题，因为人们都愿意住在那里。我们为此也做了诸多努力——不仅仅是为了赚钱。"

Not every fake European village is so successful. Luodian New Town , also known as NorthEuropean New Town, is a development in Shanghai’s suburban Baoshan district supposedlybased on the historic Swedish town of Sigtuna. According to Bosker, “its foreign architects[Swedish firm Sweco] failed to take into account Chinese lifestyles or customs—specifically, theprinciples of feng shui. The developers at first banned any remodeling but, as homes failed tosell, they caved. On visiting, Bosker “found the neighborhood to be a mess of construction, ashomebuyers eagerly carved up the houses to fix their feng shui.

不是每个仿欧式商业住宅区都如此幸运。位于上海宝山区的罗店新镇，(亦被称作北欧新镇)，据说是仿照瑞典的历史古镇锡格蒂娜建造的。博斯克说“瑞典建筑设计公司Sweco的建筑师在设计时没有考虑到中国人生活习性，尤其是中国的风水问题。开发商当时不赞同重新改造，但是当房子销售不景气的时候，他们又进行改建。博斯克去参观该楼盘的时候看到“购房者为了让房子符合风水，对房子进行重新改造，社区里因为基建搞得一团糟。

Anting German Town, a failed experiment located about 20 miles outside Shanghai, is anotherexample. “The [Chinese wanted] half-timbered buildings and medieval romance, Der Spiegelexplained in a 2011 postmortem. “But the architecture firm Speer thought it knew better andbuilt a modern German residential quarter [where] nobody wants to live. The truth, as thearticle admits, is more complicated than just aesthetics—the town lacked the life support ofproper infrastructure.

距离上海市区20英里的安亭德式小镇，也是一个失败的案例。2011年德国《明镜》杂志对此案例的失败原因的解释是“中国人想要的是那种半木质的，具有中世纪的浪漫色彩的建筑风格。而Speer建筑设计公司自认为他们更懂得设计，于是就设计了一座现代的德式住宅区(却根本没人愿意住)。文章认为该案例失败，并不仅仅只是审美角度不同的原因，真正的原因在于这个小区缺乏合理的基础生活设施。

“‘Empty towns’ and ‘ghost towns’ attract a lot of public attention, and that has a lot to do withthe fact that these are local government initiatives and investments, says Pan Yingli, aprofessor of finance at the Research Center for Modern Finance at Shanghai Jiaotong University.

上海交大当代金融研究中心的金融学教授潘英丽说，“‘空城’‘鬼城’引起了人们的广泛关注。其主要原因还是跟地方政府的决策和投资有关。

With taxes collected centrally and then redistributed to local governments, land has become theprinciple source of income for provincial officials, who normally can expect a redistributionof only 50 percent of fiscal revenue after paying 85 percent of the municipal purse, according toPan. Grandiose land projects, thus, are a ripe moneymaking vehicle for officials. Germanhouses are too dark-colored, Liu argues. “They look depressing.

潘英丽说财政税收统一上交国家后，国家再重新将税收分配至各地方政府，分配的资金其中85%要用于政府日常采购，地方政府可以支配的仅是剩余部分中的50%，因此土地就成了各地政府基本的财政收入来源。这样一来，大型的土地开发项目就成了政府的摇钱树。

“This creates bubbles, because the prosperity of properties and cities ultimately comes fromthe accumulation of people, but developing real estate alone doesn’t create jobs—so [thesenew towns] don’t attract laborers or their families. As a result, only the land per se is‘urbanized, ’ and so become the ‘ghost towns’ that we see.

顶秀置业总经理刘新虎说，“德式的房子颜色太暗沉，给人一种压抑的感觉。房地产产生泡沫的原因是因为房地产和城市的兴盛最终是由人口积累推动的，而单独的发房地产，就无法产生就业机会，因此上就无法吸引就业者及其家庭。最终的结果就是，只有土地本身被‘都市化’。也就成了现在的‘空城’，‘鬼城’。

As with many real-estate projects, the key to avoiding disaster relies on several things allgoing the developers’ way: Connections must be well-maintained, oversight should ideally beavoided, local power structures must be preserved, and the infrastructure needed to breathelife into a remote, self-contained development has to be completed on time.

对于房产开发商来说，避开灾难的重要因素包括以下几点：保持交通畅通，管理到位，供电设施齐全，偏远楼盘基本生活设施要完备。及时完善社区自给设施。

In the case of Anting, the problem seems to be more of an absence of the latter. A pleasantconurbation of ponds, green space, and wide boulevards, there is nothing about Anting thatwouldn’t necessarily appeal to Chinese buyers—a Shanghai city planner praised the conceptas aesthetic and “well thought through—but “the project failed because … the district is cutoff and surrounded by industrial districts and wasteland. It was like a “foreign body, the cityplanner told Der Spiegel.

从“安亭案例来看，其失败的主要原因并不在于该社区的设施问题。这个大型的社区里小桥流水，绿树成荫，到处都令人赏心悦目，对于中国的购房者来说，安亭小镇具有绝对的吸引力。一位上海城市规划人员对《明镜》记者说安亭就像一幅绝美的风景画。其设计“是经过深思熟虑的，——但是“该项目却是失败的，原因在于，它孤立于市区之外，周围都是工业区和荒地。 看上去就像一个格格不入的“异物。

To China’s more bearish observers, vacant cities are prima facie evidence of the country’sovercapacity problem, with Ordos, a “ghost town in Inner Mongolia, being the most famousexample. But some economists reject this narrow interpretation.

中国一些业内人士分析认为，城市房产空置基本反映出中国房产过剩。在这点上，鄂尔多斯鬼城“就是一个典型。但是，有些经济学家认为这种看法过于狭隘。

“It’s possible the ‘ghost town’ problem is exaggerated. China is a big country; different localgovernments have different governing styles and their leaders have different working abilities, says Pan Yingli. “Local governments borrow a lot of money [to build these towns] but [thesetowns don’t create] the industries or population to produce enough fiscal income to paythem off. These debts become bad loans and add to the risks for the banks. And the banks’solution to this is to extend maturities—in other words, to lend them more money to pay offtheir old debts.

潘英丽说，“人们对于‘鬼城’的说法有些夸大，中国是个大国，各地方政府的管理方式皆不相同，领导的工作能力也有高低差异。地方政府举债造城，但是并没有制造相应的就业机会来增加人口。从而无法获得相应的投资回报来偿还债务，而银行采用延期还贷的方法——换句话说，就是地方政府借新债还旧债。"